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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Florida A&M

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:332.0
Current RPI:332
Expected SOS:334
Current SOS:334
Current Record:8-25
Expected Record:8-25
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-14
Current OOC Record:0-15
Expected OOC Record:0-15
Expected OOC RPI:330
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-25332.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Grand Canyon (156.0)WACA67-51L0%0.0
11-11UNLV (134.0)MWCA108-66L0%0.0
11-16Miami FL (28.0)ACCA90-59L0%0.0
11-18Mississippi St. (73.0)SECA79-48L0%0.0
11-22North Dakota St. (210.0)SumA80-66L0%0.0
11-24Green Bay (303.0)HorzA57-50L0%0.0
11-26Stephen F. Austin (104.0)SlndA79-63L0%0.0
11-29Texas (51.0)B12A82-58L0%0.0
12-2Murray St. (48.0)OVCA80-59L0%0.0
12-9Mercer (174.0)SCA82-64L0%0.0
12-11North Florida (218.0)ASunH89-101L0%0.0
12-14Southern (315.0)SWACA68-50L0%0.0
12-17Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA79-54L0%0.0
12-21Fordham (290.0)A10A79-69L0%0.0
12-29Ball St. (126.0)MACA75-54L0%0.0
1-3Howard (339.0)MEACH84-76W100%0.0
1-6Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA87-68L0%0.0
1-8Coppin St. (343.0)MEACA79-78L0%0.0
1-13Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA99-81L0%0.0
1-15Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH94-89W100%0.0
1-27Hampton (237.0)MEACA71-75W100%0.0
1-29Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACA80-71L0%0.0
1-31Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH100-107L0%0.0
2-3Howard (339.0)MEACA83-80L0%0.0
2-5Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACA62-61L0%0.0
2-10North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH65-56W100%0.0
2-12Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH48-74L0%0.0
2-17Delaware St. (351.0)MEACA63-66W100%0.0
2-24North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACH83-77W100%0.0
2-26South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH76-74W100%0.0
3-1Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH77-89L0%0.0
3-6Howard (339.0)MEACN78-88W100%0.0
3-7Hampton (237.0)MEACN75-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida A&MMEAC26.1626.1626.7726.77-12.15-12.15
HowardMEAC4.994.9925.0025.00-2.50-2.50
Morgan St.MEAC3.653.6532.1432.14-1.30-1.30
HamptonMEAC3.583.5851.7251.720.120.12
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.573.5750.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC3.553.557.147.14-3.04-3.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.312.3153.3353.330.150.15
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.242.2458.0658.060.360.36
Coppin St.MEAC2.162.1612.9012.90-1.60-1.60
Norfolk St.MEAC2.162.1641.3841.38-0.37-0.37
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.132.1313.7913.79-1.55-1.55
Savannah St.MEAC2.112.1141.3841.38-0.36-0.36
South Carolina St.MEAC2.112.1127.5927.59-0.95-0.95
Mississippi St.SEC1.621.6264.5264.520.470.47
Grand CanyonWAC1.621.6264.5264.520.470.47
Georgia TechACC1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
North FloridaASun1.591.5934.4834.48-0.49-0.49
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.561.5679.3179.310.920.92
Miami FLACC1.561.5670.0070.000.630.63
North Dakota St.Sum1.561.5639.2939.29-0.34-0.34
Ball St.MAC1.541.5456.6756.670.210.21
SouthernSWAC1.541.5440.0040.00-0.31-0.31
Green BayHorz1.541.5431.0331.03-0.58-0.58
FordhamA101.521.5226.6726.67-0.71-0.71
MercerSC1.521.5251.7251.720.050.05
Murray St.OVC1.521.5282.1482.140.970.97
TexasB121.521.5256.2556.250.190.19
UNLVMWC1.521.5259.3859.380.280.28
George WashingtonA100.250.2545.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.170.1731.2531.25-0.07-0.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.150.1528.5728.57-0.07-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.150.1593.9493.940.130.13
West VirginiaB120.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Fort WayneSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.130.1371.8871.880.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
LibertyBSth0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
PennIvy0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
MissouriSEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
PittsburghACC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
DetroitHorz0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
George MasonA100.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
AmericanPat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
RiderMAAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
VCUA100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
Notre DameACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
DukeACC0.100.1078.7978.790.050.05
IllinoisB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1012.5012.50-0.07-0.07
ClemsonACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
Iowa St.B120.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
BelmontOVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
NJITASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0732.3532.35-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
LipscombASun0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.078.008.00-0.06-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Little RockSB0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
IowaB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00